Floor Coverings Industry Outlook 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION
Summary of Major Findings
Current Situation and Scope
Assumptions

U.S. FLOOR COVERINGS INDUSTRY SALES ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS (SECTION 1)
The Recovery Could Start in 2024
Five-Year Industry Outlook

U.S. FLOOR COVERINGS SALES ESTIMATES AND FORECASTS BY SECTOR (SECTION 1)
Carpet and Area Rugs
Ceramic and Stone Tile
Wood Flooring
Luxury Vinyl Tile
Vinyl Sheet and Other Resilient Flooring
Laminate Flooring

U.S. SOURCE OF SUPPLY (SECTIONS 2 AND 3)
Total Industry Supply
Sourcing by Product Sector

U.S. END-USE MARKETS (SECTION 4)
End-Use Market Purchases 2024
Five-Year End-Use Market Outlook
End-Use Market Purchases by Product Sector

SECTION TABLES AND DATA ANALYSIS

Section 1: U.S. Floor Coverings Industry and Product Sales Estimates and Forecasts, 1997-2029
Table 1-1: Total U.S. Dollar and Square Foot Floor Coverings Sales
Table 1-2: U.S Floor Coverings Dollar Sales by Product
Table 1-3: Percent Total U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Sales by Product
Table 1-4: U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Sales by Product
Table 1-5: Percent Total U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Sales by Product
Table 1-6: Average Value Per Square Foot of U.S. Floor Coverings by Product
Table 1-7: U.S. LVT Sales by Product Type

Section 2: U.S. Floor Coverings Factory Shipments, 1997-2024
Table 2-1: Total U.S. Floor Coverings Factory Shipments
Table 2-2: U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Factory Shipments by Product
Table 2-3: U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Factory Shipments by Product
Table 2-4: Average Value Per Square Foot of Floor Coverings Shipped From a U.S. Plant by Product
Table 2-5: U.S. Carpet and Rug Production Index

Section 3: U.S. Floor Coverings Imports, 1997-2024
Table 3-1: Total U.S. Floor Coverings Imports
Table 3-2: Imports’ Share of U.S. Floor Coverings Sales
Table 3-3: U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Imports by Product
Table 3-4: U.S. Floor Coverings Square Foot Imports by Product
Table 3-5: Average Value Per Square Foot Imported by Product
Table 3-6: Imports’ Share of Dollar U.S. Floor Coverings Sales by Product
Table 3-7: Imports’ Share of Square Foot U.S. Floor Coverings Sales by Product
Table 3-8: Share of U.S. Floor Coverings Dollar Imports by Country of Origin

Section 4: U.S. Floor Coverings End-Use Market Purchases, 1997-2024
Table 4-1: Dollar Floor Coverings Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-2: End-Use Market Purchases Percent Total U.S. Floor Coverings Sales
Table 4-3: Carpet and Area Rug Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-4: Wood Flooring Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-5: Ceramic Floor and Wall Tile Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-6: Resilient Flooring Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-7: Laminate Flooring Purchases by End-Use Market
Table 4-8: Stone Floor and Wall Tile Purchases by End-Use Market

Section 5: Factors Driving U.S. Demand, 1997-2024
Table 5-1: U.S. Building Construction Spending
Table 5-2: U.S. Housing Construction Trends
Table 5-3: Square Feet of New U.S. Housing Constructed
Table 5-4: Percent Total New U.S. Single-family Houses Sold by Sales Price
Table 5-5: U.S. Existing Home Sales
Table 5-6: U.S. Residential Kitchen and Bathroom Installations
Table 5-7: Other Factors Driving Residential Demand
Table 5-8: U.S. Non-residential Building Construction Spending by Building Type

Section 6: Quarterly Growth of U.S. Interest Rates, Housing Demand, and Flooring Sales, 2019-2024

Section 7: U.S. End-Use Market Share, Interest Rate, and Housing Demand Forecasts, 1997-2029
Table 7-1: Factors Driving Residential Demand
Table 7-2: Percent Total Floor Coverings Sales by End-Use Market

ABSTRACT FOR THE FLOOR COVERINGS INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2024: JANUARY 2024

SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS
U.S. floor coverings manufacturer sales (domestic shipments minus exports plus imports) could begin to recover during 2024 after declining in 2023. Dollar sales could increase by 6.2% and square foot sales by 4.0%. Sales are expected to rebound since mortgage rates have already moderated from their fall 2023 peak. Sales growth is expected to be led by increasing builder demand. Single-family housing starts turned upwards as interest rates declined reflecting pent-up housing demand. Commercial sales opportunities are estimated to continue to gain share of total industry sales during 2024 due to sharp gains in non-residential building construction spending in 2023 and additional increases in the current year. Industry growth, however, will be held down by continued sluggishness in residential replacement purchases. This is due to a slower recovery in existing home sales than new housing starts. Total floor covering dollar sales are projected to increase at a 5.0% compound annual growth rate between 2024 and 2029, and square foot sales are forecast to rise by 2.6% annually.

SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
Catalina provides an outlook for 2024 and forecast from 2025 to 2029, inclusively, by tracking the cyclical nature of the U.S. floor coverings industry. Floor covering demand is highly correlated with the cycles in interest rates and housing demand. Historically, interest rate movements affect housing (new construction, resales, and manufactured homes) demand, which in turn offers insight into the direction of U.S. floor covering sales. The movement in interest rates also affects commercial market sales and shipments to transportation equipment manufacturers. The goal of this industry investigation is to determine how anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will affect U.S. housing demand and floor covering sales during 2024 and beyond. Federal Reserve actions this year could begin a new downward cycle in interest rates over the next few years as inflation pressures subside. As part of this analysis, Catalina provides 2024 sales estimates by end-use market (builders, consumers, businesses, and transportation equipment manufacturers) for each industry sector. Sourcing from U.S.-and foreign-based suppliers are also evaluated. In addition, Catalina uses our projections for interest rates and housing demand to forecast sales by product for all years from 2025 to 2029.

FLOORING SECTOR SALES AND SOURCE OF SUPPLY
Catalina Research uncovered these findings in our in-depth report on U.S. floor coverings industry trends and an analysis of end-use markets. U.S. shipments, exports, imports, and price trends are evaluated for wall-to-wall carpet, carpet tile, and area rugs; solid and engineered wood flooring; ceramic and stone tile; LVT by product, other vinyl tile, vinyl sheet, other resilient flooring; and laminate flooring. Data is in dollars and square feet. Import sales are tracked by product by major country of origin, which uncover the inroads made by Chinese and other foreign-based manufacturers.

Date published: January 2024 Price: $3,995.00
Contents: 26 pages of summaries (.pdf), 39 tables (.xlsx)

To order or receive more information about this report, contact our Sales Department @ (561) 988-0853 or e-mail sales@CatalinaReports.com.